The Long And Winding Road: Real Estate Through The Music Of The Beatles

Over the next week we are going to be getting our fill of The Beatles.  The reason?  February 9th will mark the 50th anniversary of their earth shattering appearance on The Ed Sullivan show.  Much will be made of their impact on popular music and on American culture.  Surely it is unlikely any entertainment personality will have the kind of impact that The Beatles had.  With that as my backdrop, I’d like to suggest another way to appreciate their music…

Penny Lane                                                                                                                               You’ve stumbled on a quaint little neighborhood and it gets you to thinking.

I Want To Hold Your Hand                                                                                                         The feeling you get when you walk into an open house and it hits you, “This home is for us.”

She Loves You                                                                                                                             The response you get when you agree with her that this is the right home for you.

You’re Going To Lose That Girl (or Guy)                                                                             Better figure out what to do next and in a hurry.

Tell Me Why                                                                                                                               What your parents say when you inform them you’ve found a house.

I Should Have Known Better                                                                                                     The feeling you have after hanging up with your parents (just kidding).

A Hard Days Night                                                                                                                   Pretty much sums up the evening after you realize you don’t know the first thing about buying a home.

Help!                                                                                                                                               And you say to yourself, “Now what?”

If I Needed Someone                                                                                                                     You start making calls and interviewing prospective agents.

Nowhere Man                                                                                                                               The agent won’t call, text or email you back… next!

A Little Help From Your Friends                                                                                             Your friend refers you to their amazing Realtor.

I Don’t Want To Spoil The Party                                                                                               Your Realtor informs you that there are multiple offers.

It Won’t Be Long                                                                                                                           You wrote the offer and your Realtor says “We’ll know something tonight.”

We Can Work It Out                                                                                                                   The seller counters your offer, but your agent assures you, it’s yours if you come up just a little more on your offer.

Don’t Let Me Down                                                                                                                   “Come on baby… make it happen!”

I’ve Got A Feeling                                                                                                                 Fingers are crossed, the stars are aligned and the you’re sure the real estate God is smiling on you.

Here Comes The Sun                                                                                                                 Yes!  You got it!

I Feel Fine                                                                                                                                       You realize, that you really can do this.

When I Get Home                                                                                                                          Can’t hardly wait to say it!

Taxman                                                                                                                                         Yeah that’s right, you’re a homeowner and now have an amazing tax write off.

A Day In The Life                                                                                                                       Your feet are up, the coffee is brewing and it just doesn’t get any better than this.

Fixing A Hole                                                                                                                                 Yes, a home does require some maintenance.

Little Child                                                                                                                                 You’re thinking, “Good thing we bought a 4 bedroom.”

She’s Leaving Home                                                                                                               Where did all those years go?

When I’m Sixty Four                                                                                                                You start thinking “Honey, maybe we should down size.”

Golden Slumbers                                                                                                                     You’re all packed up.  The moving truck is ready, you hug each other and say goodbye to the place you’ve called home for so many years.  It’s bittersweet, but you think, “You know, it really was a great home.”

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Home From Vacation And Preparing For 2014

Having just returned to sunny Southern California after a week of much needed R and R in the frozen tundra of the Northeast, New York to be specific, I find myself in need of a refresher course to get ready for the new year in real estate.  I now know from firsthand experience, that the weather influences markets throughout many parts of the country.  When the wind chill is below zero, I cannot imagine getting in the car and driving anywhere with my Realtor, in search of anything.  In fact even though I was on vacation, I found myself thinking, “I’m not going outside today…”  Thankfully for Southern Californians, this is not such a problem.  It is for this reason that the real estate market here doesn’t pause for inclimate weather.  Oh sure, if it’s pouring rain for a few days, we might postpone our house hunt until it stops, but given we’re in the throes of a never ending drought, even that is a distant memory.  No, house buying and selling really doesn’t have much of a weather season here.  There are still however seasonal trends and strategies for when to buy and when to sell.

It should come as little surprise that the spring is the peak buying/selling season pretty much everywhere.  People want to move toward the end of school and so they start thinking about buying or selling right around February.  In this way, Southern California is no different.  I tell all my clients that Super Bowl, literally is the kickoff of the real estate season.  In spring, selling prices are higher favoring sellers but selection is better, favoring buyers.  It is for this reason that I encourage all my sellers to get on the market before Super Bowl if possible, to take advantage of low seasonal inventory, but to set their pricing as if it were mid-March.  This is a strategy that has proven very successful for my sellers.  Less competition means shorter marketing times to sale.  It also means better offers and typically closer sales-to-list-price ratios.  And since so few Realtors think this way,  I also encourage my buyers to buy early in the year because they can take advantage of lesser informed sellers who price their homes with an end of year mentality, thus not anticipating the prices of the coming months.  This equates to better buys for my buyers.

Strategies abound in real estate.  There’s strategies for negotiating; approaches to pricing and methods for home preparation that give a seller an edge over their competition.  Presently I have two sellers in prep-mode.  They are actively decluttering, giving to Good Will and cleaning.  I’ll bring in my decorator as I am doing for one client this afternoon, to put the final touches on our project so that we can hit the ground running and enter the market before Super Bowl.  For another, that timeline just wasn’t realistic, but they are pushing hard to be on the market before the 3rd week of February.  Between now and then, they will do all of the above along with painting and new carpet and even some tile floors in the bathrooms.  Total cost?  I estimate less than $10,000.  Yes they’ll need to come up with that money somehow, but net return on investment?  I told them I will at least double their money if not quadruple it and lessen the selling time by weeks if not longer.  Like I say, strategies abound in my business, it’s just that so few actually implement them.  And by the way, if this market holds to the latest trend, buyers want finished, move in ready properties.  If a home is not truly ready to go, the final sales price is going to be substantially lower and it could take a long time and several price reductions before it sells.

As I prepare for 2014 and try to get my “sea legs” back after a week of vacation bliss, let’s take a quick peek at some numbers for my local market…

The Conejo Valley has yet to break 400 available homes on the market (393).  That’s still anemic by historical measure.  Good for sellers, not so good for buyers.  Let’s also look at the first 25 days of 2014 (111 closed escrows) and compare that to 2013 (115 closed escrows).  This means what?  I conclude, it looks like it’s going to be another good year for real estate.  Further, I anticipate that inventory will eventually break 400 total units for sale at some point in the not too distant future but I think I should have my newest listings on before that happens.  Am I the only Realtor who thinks like this?  Heck no, there are many in every community.  However given the high number of people that carry a real estate license, I would suggest that as a percentage it’s not very high. So pick your Realtor wisely if you want to get the highest price, in the least amount of time and if you want to pay an under market price with the least amount of competing buyers.  There is no shortage of licensees in my business but like any business, they’re not all created equal.  The good news is that you choose who you want to work with.  I encourage you to choose a top agent and take advantage of this market, it’s going to be a good year so make the most of it.

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Your Home’s Holiday Wish List

When I was a kid, right around Thanksgiving we would get the Sears catalog in the mail.  Back then there were a dozen TV stations, not hundreds so there weren’t tons and tons of commercials from which to glean you holiday wish list.  If you were like me, it was through the catalog that you could begin creating your list for the holiday gift season.  The latest train set, or Panasonic cassette player; Barbie’s newest car or Easy Bake Oven, you made your list and handed over to the powers that be.  So in honor that nostalgia, I’m going to create, in no particular order, a holiday wish list as if I were… your home.

  1.           Carpeting.  As your home I want you to know that you can re-carpet for as little as a $3,000 to $4,000.   You know our carpet is starting to look kinda worn; it’s turned black at the edges of the baseboards and stairs and it’s even buckling in a couple spots.  And remember that place near the dining room table that Sasha the cat threw up last year? Well, it never really did come clean…
  2.           Paint.  It’s been 7 years since my last face lift and red dining rooms are looking just so, turn of the century.  I hear gray and taupe are new hot colors… If that’s too much, how about the just the front door, the trim and the garage door?  Our chain opener is leaving a black discoloration right down the center of the roll up garage door and the paint is really looking shabby and faded; even the shutters are peeling…
  3.           Ball Valves.  I know how you like those practical gifts so how about you replace my valves?  Those are the plumbing knob thingy’s under every faucet and at every toilet.  When I was built the valves used were the screw kind that you had to turn all the way to shut me off.  The new ones only require a quarter turn and are much less prone to leaking, especially important when we are away on vacation.
  4.           Variable Speed Pool Pump.  Yes, it’s true we hardly use our pool anymore, but that’s all the more reason for us to get energy efficient.  A new variable speed filter pump costs around $1,000 but will pay for itself in less than a year because the old pump you’re using is like a 10 MPG 1975 Oldsmobile Toronado, just sucking energy and costing you thousands in electric bills unnecessarily.
  5.           Dishwasher.  Now that the kids are all gone, you hardly wash dishes more than once a week but the dishes just don’t come clean after sitting all crusty in the dishwasher until it’s full enough to run.  It costs around $1,400, but the Fisher Paykel dual drawer dishwasher lets you wash half a load.  It saves water, adds value if you sell and is soooo quiet, you can still hear them game when it’s running!
  6.           Tankless Hot Water Heater.  At this point, it’s only a matter of time before we’ll have to replace our old water heater anyway, so why not start saving now?  Being that we live in a desert here in California and we’re in a period of drought, think about all that water you waste every morning while waiting for the shower to get hot.  Remember back in the early 90’s when you had to use a bucket to catch all that water just so you could water the roses?  Remember 3 minute showers?  What was it the kids learned at camp, “If it’s yellow it’s mellow, if it’s brown flush it down?”  If you had a tankless, you would have instant hot water saving gallons daily, plus you would save on the gas bill because you wouldn’t have to heat up that whole 50 gallon tank just to have hot water.
  7.           Windows, Doors, Door Knobs, Faucets.  OK, maybe these are kind of like asking for the $4,000 electric Corvette from Neiman Marcus, but dual pane windows sure would be nice.  Not only would you save on energy but when Harley and Velma start their shouting match next door, we wouldn’t hear them!  And nothing looks quite as modern as new 6 paneled door with nice new handles.  Gold may make a comeback someday, but I’m not holding my breath and those crystal sink handles? They’re looking seriously grodie too… Delta makes some pretty sweet faucets that won’t break the bank… just sayin’…
  8.           Wifi Enabled Light Bulbs.  Pleeeez?  They’re are soooo cool!  They only cost around $90 per bulb, but they change colors and you control them from you iPhone.  You can create a museum quality lighting experience for all different times of day and seasons.  Pleeez?
  9.           Epoxy Garage Floor.  Come on Bill… you know you want it.  You’re out there puttering every weekend.  You’ve got all those baby food jars with every screw size imaginable but you’re always having to use the shop vac to clean up that dusty concrete floor.  Imagine, with an epoxy floor you could instead, mop it up!  Just think of the possibilities!
  10.           Drip System for the Planters.  This is really a stocking stuffer, but with the drought and all… it would be way better for our water conservation and besides, have you looked at the sprinklers lately?  You’ve been spraying the side of the house for years.  The stucco is discolored and I wouldn’t be surprised if we have dry rot and mold by now!

So there you have it, your home’s holiday wish list.  Not only will you enjoy these changes, but you’ll save money and add value to your most important asset.  Winner, winner turkey dinner!

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The Emperor Has No Clothes; Or Why Aren’t The Pundits Looking At Inventory?

I know, I know, I’m pounding the inventory drum to death.  I guess I just can’t help it; it’s just so painfully obvious.  Do you remember the Hans Christian Andersen story of the emperor who is persuaded by a swindler to wear invisible clothes?  The swindler is so convincing in his sales pitch that the emperor, for fear of not seeming enlightened, believes him.  All those around him are so unsure themselves, that they too stay quiet to what is so obvious: that the emperor has no clothes.  It’s not until a little boy shouts it out that everyone opens their eyes to the obvious.  I guess I’m that little boy.

Consider the builder’s data out today: Housing starts rise 23% in November.  23%! An astonishing number.  Why?  Why does any manufacturer increase production?  There’s a shortage of available inventory and a perceived opportunity to profit.  National home builder Lennar reported today that their orders up 13% for the quarter and prices are up.  Their numbers would be even higher if they had more developed lots in urban center areas where Reuters reports, “Demand is high.”  And they went on to say that Lennar is actually better positioned to build than other builders because they purchased land in the down turn.  And yet Reuters reports they are short of lots….

It is painfully clear to me, and apparently no one else including National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, that the decline in sales is directly linked to a shortage of available inventory.  There just aren’t enough homes to satisfy buyer demand, so consequently sales numbers are down from a year ago.  Oh sure, Yun comments that many buyers are sitting on the sidelines frustrated at their inability to win a bidding war for property, but he says it as an afterthought to his reasoning that rising rates and rising prices are the culprit quashing demand.  As my grandmother used to say, hogwash!  Why do you suppose there are multiple offers and bidding wars?  Not enough homes for sale given the number of buyers.  Sure, some buyers are being priced out of the market and until wages catch up, they will have to continue to rent.  But let me tell you about renting: residential rents are skyrocketing.  I have tenants looking for single family homes to rent and there ain’t nothin’!  And I mean nuthin’!  So what does that portend?  How about rents continue to rise?  As rents go up, the attractiveness of buying increases, thus increasing demand to buy even more.  Why is the rental market tight?  We haven’t been building enough apartments and condominiums in “urban areas where demand is high,” and this is spilling over to the ‘Burbs.  It’s really the perfect storm: A shortage of buildable lots; a labyrinth of government red tape before a nail can be hammered into a board; an expanding population; the failure of most developers to anticipate the turnaround in housing and thus finish raw land into developed, buildable lots; 10% of all homeowners are still underwater therefore unable to sell and we’re at the end of the historic low interest rate period that so many property owners refinanced to, compelling many would be sellers to stay put.  And that doesn’t even touch on the improving economy and escalation of accompanying household creation.   Even Ben Bernanke and the Fed recognizes this and announced yesterday that it was beginning the end of Quantitative Easing, its tool used to boost a struggling economy.

So listen up: “The Emperor has no clothes!”  There simply aren’t enough homes to sell for there to be increasing year over year sales figures and until that changes expect the lower-sales-numbers trend to continue; rents and prices to rise and builders to ramp up construction.  Which by the way improves the employment picture more than any other component in our GDP and its ripple, affects the health of the entire economy.  This in turn does what?  Increases the demand for housing.  Can you say housing and employment boom?  I can.

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A Looking Local: Assessing Inventory For The Conejo Valley

I’m not usually quite so local in my blog.  That is, I base my thoughts and opinions on what I am seeing locally but since The Real Estate Conversation is now being read from Spain to Australia, Back East to around the corner, I try to be a little more general in my perspective.   Today however, I’m going to talk real local.

The sales and appreciation data that was just released, has many an economist predicting a slowdown in housing.  Many of these pundits are speculating that the coming year is going to see a significant increase in inventory as investors continue their withdrawal from the buying populace and because prices and interest rates have risen, homes are less affordable and subsequently will lead to an easing of demand.  Logic, they would have you believe, makes a case for flat growth and sagging prices.  Nothing could be further from the truth, that is, the truth as I see it.  As you know from reading my articles, I have been pounding the drum of “low inventory equals price appreciation” and no matter what color paint you want to use, with inventory low, your picture is going to be rosy.  So let me give you some stats as compiled by statistician and real estate professional, Chuck Lech.

I picked this week, week 49, as my reference point.  I have hard data going back as far as 2003, the first year of the ramp up which was to become the Great Housing Bubble.  In the Conejo Valley at that time, you could still drive around and find new model home complexes.  Those new homes are not part of this data but suffice to say, if they were, the numbers would tilt even higher by increasing the number of homes available to purchase.  So what am I talking about?  In the 49th week of 2003, the Conejo Valley had 372 total active listings.  Is that a lot or a little you ask?  It’s a little.  This is why the prices were ramping up: supply was too low to meet the demand.  In response to this inequity, the market did what a market does and it rose to meet that demand by gradually increasing available supply.  By the 49th month of 2004, total active listings stood at 773, up more than 100%.  Inventory continued to rise during the housing boom, until the bubble burst in middle 2007, so that by the 49th month in 2007, total active listings stood at 1219; a 227% increase in available homes for sale from the low of 2003.

By 2008, Lehman had collapsed and housing values were in a free fall.  The easy lending standards (zero down, no asset, employment or credit verification required) that had been instrumental in boosting demand and pushing prices ever higher, had disappeared.  Suddenly you had a confluence of conditions: restrictive lending policies combined with a slew of unqualified homeowners unable to meet their mortgage obligations, resulting in the first avalanche of foreclosures.  This caused inventory to explode at the same time of waning demand and prices seemed in an endless downward spiral.  The following years have been well documented: with little demand for houses, prices declined rapidly, home building ceased, people lost their jobs, then their homes and Wammo! the terrible economy known as The Great Recession.  However, by 2011 the active available inventory for the Conejo Valley stood at 767, almost half of 2007 and we began to see the first signs of a stabilizing market.  The 49th week of 2012 offered 336 total units available for purchase (less than 2003) and the table was set for a spike in appreciation.  Fueled by the combination of cash investors, a real estate weary but ready-to-buy public and incredibly low interest rates, home sales and values exploded.  Boom, 28% appreciation for 2013.  Yet, most if not all of that appreciation actually took place from January to August.  This means that for the past 5 months, prices have been flat and not coincidentally, total sales have been in decline.  Herein lies the crux of the housing naysayer’s argument.  Sales are down, investors aren’t participating to the same degree (fewer foreclosed and discounted homes available) and with rates and prices are higher, fewer people can qualify to buy.  All this they say, will lead to a decline in the housing market.  But this argument ignores the reality of low inventory.

The 49th week of 2013 has inventory standing at a modest 481 total units.  The only lower totals were 2003 and 2012, both years of incredible property value appreciation.  This is the crux of my argument.  While demand may not be as strong as 2013 for all the a fore mentioned reasons, the rapidly improving national economy will lead to more jobs and higher wages which in turn causes greater household creation.  With more people starting families and more young people moving out, the demand for housing will go up.   Coupled with the lack of home building over the past 6 years, demand will once again I predict, eclipse supply.  In fact according to the average over the past 35 years, California finds itself 770,000 units short of where it should be due to the lack of home building.  This means a shortage of available housing in California not just now, but for years to come.  This, along with property owners holding historically low interest rate mortgages (thus not motivated to sell) and the last of the underwater properties as yet still unable to sell, all adds up to shortage, shortage, shortage.  And shortage equals appreciation.  Thus I believe we will have a very vibrant housing market in 2014.  So while it won’t be as crazy as last year and we almost certainly won’t experience double digit appreciation, we will see some and it will still be harder to buy than to sell.  At least that’s how it appears where I am, the beautiful Conejo Valley and somehow I suspect, where you are too.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Let’s Get Something Straight

I heard some guy, some housing analyst on CNBC yesterday, tell viewers that homes were more affordable in 2003 than they are today due to the fact that people had better access to adjustable mortgages and interest only financing.  He went on to criticize Case-Shiller as being backwards looking, even 7 months old data.  Further he went on to say that the market is poised to drop because we can see the sales numbers are declining and month over month appreciation has slowed to a crawl.  As my wife likes to say, “What a dufus.”  Let me explain.

First, homes are not less affordable now.  Prices are only marginally higher than they were in 2003.  We are at or around 2004 levels.  Second, 5/1 and 7/1 ARM’s are still being used.  I personally have never use a traditional 30 year mortgage.  Others like me have not either and the reason is simple, I do not expect to pay off my home – ever.  The reasons are many and varied.  For one, I don’t plan on living here for 30 years.  Two, I save a lot on money by carrying shorter term, thus lower interest rate loans.  A 5/1 today might start as low as 2.625% for the first 5 years vs. a traditional 30 year which is around 4.375%.  That is an enormous savings over the first 5 years.  Enormous.  Third, I am in my peak earning years and my taxes are at the highest level.  I need the interest rate tax deduction.  If I were to have paid down a traditional 30 year mortgage for 15 years, I would find myself paying more towards principle than interest, limiting and reducing my much needed deduction.  Fourth whether my home sits at 80% loan to value or is paid off, the appreciation is the same.  Therefore, given the high cost of real estate relative to other investments, I want as little money in the home as possible.  This maximizes the rate of return on that money by using “leverage.”

Leverage comes from the word lever; think two rocks and a tree branch in which the branch serves as a lever to allow you to move a much larger rock than you could do without the 2nd rock and lever.  Thus I am leveraging or maximizing the growth potential of my money.  Here’s how it works: Let’s say I invest, $100,000 or 20% for the purchase of a $500,000 home.  If that home goes up 10%, I am $50,000 ahead.  What did I invest?  $100,000.  If I gained 10% on my $100,000 say in the stock market, my gross return is $10,000.  Thus the advantage of real estate is that my $100,000 investment goes up by the percentage of the entire investment not just the portion I put in.  So instead of a 10% return on $100,000, I get a 50% return ($50,000 gain is a 50% return on my $100,000 investment.)  Moreover, the money that is not “stuck” in my real estate, is working for me elsewhere ie: 401K or even in additional real estate investments, which are taking further advantage of the considerable leverage real estate as an investment offers.

As for the idea that this market is somehow losing steam, all you have to do is look at the numbers in any given market and you will see that the market is slowing as it used to do every fall.  Real estate is a seasonal business.  People prefer to buy when the kids are out of school and not when it’s snowing or they are preparing to roast turkey.  Moreover, the biggest reason for slowing sales is lack of inventory.  This is especially true in California.  Recently Toll Bros. acquired Southern California home builder Shapell Homes, for $1.6B.  They reasoned that they picked up 5,200 lots in established neighborhoods, in communities where there is a shortage buildable single family lots.  They showed a chart to their investors demonstrating that based on the 35 year average, California has under-produced homes over the past 7 years to the tune of a staggering 770,000 units.  In other words, California based on 35 years of data is 770,000 units short just to keep up with its average population growth and family creation.  Because the state is in such short supply of new homes (and even the housing permit report that came out yesterday said single family home permits were up only .8%.  This is likely due to the shortage of buildable lots), we will be in  a perpetual state of shortage for years and years to come.

I will conclude like this: Mortgage rates are compellingly low.  30 year mortgages are not the only game in town and as long as we have a continuation in the shortage of inventory like we currently have, the real estate market is going to remain stable, with prices increasing gradually.   Appreciation is an inevitability not an anomaly and real estate remains the single most powerful tool for wealth creation.

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Of Family, Friends And Neighbors

It’s late November.  It’s just days before the shopping season begins; roast turkey becomes a daily meal and we’re reminded that nothing’s more important than health and family.  My wife’s family is gathering at our house for Turkey this year for the first time in many years.  At present, everyone is getting along, though as anyone with a family knows, until we’re actually done eating and said our goodbyes, anything can happen.  Fingers crossed.

There’s an old saying that states, “You can choose friends, but not family nor neighbors.”  It kind of is what it is.  I have been pretty lucky that over the years I’ve had good neighbors.  When we moved to Southern California, pregnant for the first time, we were lucky to have a retired LAPD cop for a next door neighbor.  He kept a watch out when I was always working and he had the best dog, Toby, a yellow lab.  Within a couple of years, we had a dog too.  Across the street was a coworker who became a great friend and whose son, was and still is, one of my son’s closet friends.  Like me, my son grew up with an African American best friend.  It was pure luck that they lived across the street.  After all, you just don’t get to pick your neighbors.  When we moved to Thousand Oaks, we moved to a new home community where everyone pretty much moved in the same week.  Out of 10 homes on our street, there were at one time, 22 kids.  It was a crazy.  We had a cul de sac softball team, the worst in the league.  We had block parties at every opportunity and on every national holiday.  We even went camping together one summer and a single dad proposed to his girlfriend on that trip.  Wine tasting, trick or treating, it was as Mayberry RFD as you can get.  We were just lucky. Buying in a new home community offers opportunities like that.

I sold a home over the summer to a wonderful family with 3 young girls.  It was a huge lot, a flat acre, on a cul de sac of just 3 homes.  Two weeks after they moved in, the next door neighbor rented their home to a family that had 7 cars and a teenage male driver. From Mayberry to Fast and Furious, overnight.  With neighbors, it really is just luck of the draw.  That is an extreme example of course, but it is a true story.  Usually when buying a home, the repeated visits to the property reveal the idiosyncrasies of a neighborhood, of a street.  If it’s all trucks and RV’s, you get a pretty good idea of what to expect.  But change does happen and there’s nothing we can do to stop it, we can only try to embrace it.  On my street families have come and gone over the years.  There are only two of us left from the original group.  Most of the kids either went off to college or got married; their parents moved to start new jobs.  5-7 years, that’s the California average stay in a home.  It’s just the inevitable, that change happens.  While I am no longer as close to my current neighbors as I was with the original group, we’re all friendly.  It’s pretty neat to see the new families come in; the little kids chalking the street again, riding their bikes, becoming friends.

As I get ready for the annual rituals of the holidays, I like to think back on the neighbors that have come and gone.  Some I chose as friends for life, others become stories and memories of time gone by.  I guess the season really is a time for family, friends and reflection; appreciation of the good, recollections of the sadness that life sometimes brings.  And so it goes.  Our friends we choose, but family and neighbors are what they are and to a large extent, what we make of them.

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How Do I Sell My House? Becoming A Smarter Seller

In my last blog I wrote about how to buy a house, just some of the basics like prioritizing and making lists.  One of my clients wrote to me, “Great article – how about doing one on selling a house?”  I thought sure, why not?  So here are some of the basics to consider when selling your home.

Selling a house is a lot more complicated than buying.  First of all, you not only have to ready your home but you have to keep it that way while living there.  Not so easy.  Getting started is a multistep process, but in a nut shell, you’ll need to begin by prepping your home, a service I, like many top producers, provide.  Putting a home on the market without decluttering and maybe painting or carpeting, is a recipe for a lowball offer.  I like to tell my clients that it’s all about the three P’s (Preparation, Presentation and Price) and if they follow my recommendations and invest in their sale, which sometimes can run upwards of $10,000, I will double and maybe even quadruple their return on investment.  To be fair, I have no real way to measure this, but just as pricing strategy is a matter of opinion, I feel I’m pretty right on with this assessment.

Naturally you’ll want to hire a great Realtor.  What makes a great Realtor?  A lot of things: experience, ethics, trustworthiness.  Do they like your home, do they communicate well and in the way you like, ie: in person, by email or text?  Do they explain things clearly and respond to your concerns quickly?  I could go on and on, but rather than focus on the Realtor hiring process, I’m going to give you some practical tips that you can do on your own to become a smarter seller.  The first step starts with getting your home ready for selling.

So what is prepping all about?  I’m going to focus on the inside as the outside is a whole other discussion.  Start by looking at all your horizontal surfaces and then take everything off and box it up since you’re moving anyway.  You’ll want to set aside large pieces like statuettes, candlesticks and picture frames to use later on.  If the object is smaller than your fist, get rid of it.  Harsh I know, but small items by definition are cluttering and the goal is to make your home as sleek and clean looking as it can be.  I know you want to keep pictures of the kids and grandkids; the little snap shot of old grama holding you as a baby, but trust me on this, your buyer doesn’t want to see it.  This holds true for your Elvis ashtray collection, tea cups, Victorian era spoons… you get the picture.

Next, look at your furniture.  An average family room for example, should have a coffee table, a chair and a couch, an end table with a lamp, but after that you have to ask yourself, is it a family room or a furniture store?  Over the summer I helped a client fill her entire garage with furniture that was in her home (she had lots of antiques) and she still had a house full of furniture.  I can tell you, she was not happy about it.  She said she liked a home that looked “lived in.”  I tell all my clients this: the way we live in our home is not the way we present it for sale.  And while there are some buyers out there that like a home with lots of stuff in them, most folks just want to see the space.  The more stuff, the less space; the less space, the lower the price.  If your couch is the same one you had in your bachelorette apartment, if nothing else, find an afghan to toss over the corner, maybe add an accent pillow.  Trust me on this, corduroy couches are not making a comeback.  Offices are tough because if you’re like me, you’re using it all the time.  Sometimes you’ll need to have bookcases or file cabinets removed so it’s not so crowded.  Speaking of books, if you have a book case plan on packing up 2/3 of the inventory and FYI, there’s no reason to ever display paperbacks.  If you’ve got those, you’re going to want to pack them.  By the way, the library is happy to take your hard backs and give you a tax deductible receipt for them.  Speaking of donating, you’re likely to want to organize a part of your garage for charitable donations.  Most will pick up for you.  Salvation Army even takes furniture.  Word to the wise: don’t just open the garage and expect them to go in if you’re not at home, they will just drive off and you’ll have to reschedule.

Pictures, paintings, etc.  Last month I sold a home for a woman who was a painter, very much in the Thomas Kincaid style of thatched roof cottages and bridges etc.  Most of the paintings were of the 18” x 24” canvas size… she had to take down 50% of them.  Even though she was a very good artist, her home was too much like a gallery than we wanted to present to the public and because the canvases were all the same size, the walls looked symmetrical and boxy, so down they came.  As for the family wall of fame, you know, it’s usually a stairwell or hallway that you’ve hung pictures of every generation or every school picture your kids ever took.  There may even be several of Old Yeller, yeah I know, he was a sweet old dog, but your buyer isn’t interested in that.  Aside from the obvious number of holes they’ll be thinking they have to patch and paint, it makes the space look small and we don’t want small, we want big, bright, clean and open.  Though I’m making light of this process here, I want to point out there are bound to be a whole lot of emotions when moving.  And the longer you’ve been there, the more emotions there are.  If you are older or have lost a spouse or child, this is especially hard so you’ll want to leave plenty of time to go through the closets and cupboards.  This process is often slowed by the memories of the items you are packing.  So take your time.  You don’t want to rush through this just to get on the market.  That said, we’re always rushing to get on the market, so doing a little advance work before you call me is a good idea.

Clean.  Again, another one of those obvious things, but clean means what exactly?  Mop the floor, wipe the counters and clean the carpets?  Sure; but how about windows or grout?  I sold another home recently where the tile was 20 years old, but in near perfect condition.  The grout however was dark grey.  It had been mopped so many times that there was years of soap embedded deep in the grout.  To address this, we brought out a crew who does grout cleaning.  They used a machine much like a carpet cleaner with a rotating brush.  It steam-injected a solution and then sucked it out.  The grout looked like new when we finished.  A clean home is one of the most important elements of a successful sale.  In that transaction we painted and put in new carpet.  We also had some professional cleaning that  included windows and screens.  It cost the seller about $9000 but we sold in three weeks and for near top dollar.  Had we not taken those steps, I have no doubt the seller would have had to accept $30,000 less.  That’s about 350% return on investment, not to mention the quick sale.

Smell.  Whether you have diaper pails, pets or kimchee, all of our homes have odors, some are just nastier than others.  To combat this, open your windows regularly.  A closed up home smells stale.  Picking out a nice potpourri or fresh fragrant flowers is always helpful.  Whatever you do however, do not use Glade plug-ins or any other of these overly perfumed products.  Not only does it overwhelm a potential customer and make them not want to stay in your home, it makes them suspicious that you are trying to cover something up like pet urine or dirty dog.  Woodsy smells are good.  Cinnamon is especially good around the holidays.

Of course I have many other tricks; tricks of the trade as it were, that help my clients get good, fast offers.  These are just a few basic ones.  How successful is this approach to listing a home?  As a rule, using these techniques sell my listings for more than a competitor’s every time.  Other Realtors know they can show my properties cold without previewing because of my reputation for helping my sellers prepare.  Knowing the tricks; having the trades that do the work quickly and affordably and knowing how to analyze the market for pricing strategy and marketing are what separate the great Realtor from the average Realtor.  It’s also why it’s so hard to sell your home on your own without a Realtor.  I tell all my prospective clients that if you hire me I will sell your home for the highest possible price, in the shortest amount of time and with the lease amount of hassle.  It’s like that old saying goes, “Hiring a professional doesn’t cost, it saves” and when it comes to selling real estate, these words were never truer.

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How Do You Buy A House?

How do you buy a house?  It may sound dumb to ask this question, but it is a legitimate question.  Where to start? What should you look for?  What should you avoid?  Who’s going to represent you?  Financing? Escrow? Inspections? Closing?  See, there’s a lot to it and even if you’ve done it several times before, there are always new twists and pitfalls and even benefits that you’ll want to consider.

The first step to buying a home is to start out with a wish list.  A list of “must haves” and “would like to haves.”  Obvious?  Perhaps, but every search should start with the basics.   I’m currently working with a client, who after looking at a home they were attracted to said, “We’re going to talk it over and review our list.”  I can’t begin to tell you how impressed I was by this.  This couple has bought and sold several homes with me over the past decade and a half and yet with all that experience, they knew that part of the process had to be to analyze what that particular home had to offer and contrast it with their wish list.  Turned out, that while it was a really nice home, it didn’t have the 3 car garage that they, with two high school aged kids, deemed a critical feature.  It also wasn’t quite in the neighborhood they wanted, but because it was so nice, they were tempted.  The list kept them on track.

Next, prioritize your wish list.  Is having a certain school a deal breaker or is it a flexible?  Do you have to have a view or a pool?  Not all amenities are created equal, nor cost the same and only you know what is most important to you.  A view for example may not be a priority but it is the most expensive amenity.  So if you find yourself trying to understand why a certain view property costs more per foot than another, factor in the view.  If having a view is a “want” rather than a “must have,” you might consider a less expensive home that doesn’t have a view if you’re not willing to pay the view premium.  Your list may evolve as you get into the process, but having a list is the best place to start.

Now it’s time to choose your Realtor.  Do you hire someone who has handled your family’s real estate for a generation or maybe one of the moms from the kid’s preschool.  Maybe it’s someone from church or temple or maybe even from little league.  Realtors can be found just about anywhere.  There’s a joke I like to tell prospective clients, “Do you know what the difference between a California driver’s license and a California real estate license?  Not everyone in California has a driver’s license.”  It’s silly but it’s not entirely unfounded.  It’s just not that difficult to begin the practice of selling real estate.  But few things are more important to the process than the real estate professional you hire.  By the way, there is a very strange dynamic in play here: as a buyer, you hire the Realtor that is going to represent you, but you don’t actually pay them anything.  This is because commissions are customarily paid by the seller, not the buyer.  While this is clearly cost effective if you are a buyer, can you imagine hiring an attorney to represent you and your interests without giving them compensation for their work?  And would that attorney truly represent your best interests if they were not being paid by you, rather by the person on the other side of the negotiating table?  It is for this reason that you have to develop a strong bond with the agent you have chosen.  I tell all my clients that I work for them; that they control all the decisions and the only decision I control is whether I will decide to take them on as clients.  This is often shocking to them but because I am going to “help” them find a home and often perform an exhaustive search without any compensation, trust cuts both ways.  They have to trust me to do right by them and I have to trust them that they don’t screw me over.  Let me explain…

In 2010 I was interviewed by a late 30-ish engineer and his wife to represent them in their home purchase.  They liked me and I them, and we agreed to work together.  This was when there were tons of properties on the market so we were looking at a lot of different homes.   Eventually we bid on a foreclosed home they really wanted but we lost out in a multiple offer.  Unfortunately they didn’t listen to my advice and didn’t bid enough despite my urging to bid more.  They were very disappointed and they blamed me.  Still, we continued to work together but now distrust had started to bloom.  By spring 2011 we had still not found a satisfactory home.  Then I sent them a home that was just beyond their affordability and suddenly I stopped getting return calls.  As it turned out they decided that the best way to bridge the gap between what they could spend and what the home cost, was to go directly to the listing agent and get a rebate for a portion of the buyer’s agent commission.  They reasoned that the listing agent would be willing to split the buyer’s agent commission with them since the agent would now be representing both sides.  Because I had only sent them the home, not actually shown them the home, the other agent had no idea that they were working with me and cut a deal with the engineer.  So after many, many months and literally dozens of homes, I was not compensated for my hard work and patience, counsel and insight.  As you can see, in the buyer-agent relationship, that trust thing swings both ways.

Communication between buyer and Realtor is a critical component of buying a home.  I tell all my clients that their feedback is essential to me if I am to help find them the right home.  They need to be honest and clue me in to what they like and don’t like.  If a buyer isn’t forthright with what they want or are willing to pay or perhaps because they lack confidence in identifying what they want, in the worst case they end up with something they don’t like or at best cause both of us to waste a tremendous amount of time and energy before finally figuring it out.  This leads to frustration and dissatisfaction with the process, your choice of Realtor and often can cause both you and the Realtor to throw in the towel.  Remember, no closing means no home for you and no Realtor compensation for me.  If the Realtor isn’t tuned in to “what’s important to you,” success for everyone can be elusive.  Communication between buyer and buyer’s agent is of paramount importance for any successful home search.

There are many other parts to this process like inspection, financing, closing etc. But identifying what you want vs. must have; finding a Realtor you trust and maintaining an open and honest channel of communication with that Realtor, is the recipe for successfully finding your dream home.  Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to call a client I showed a gorgeous view home to yesterday and see if this might be “the one.”

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Tom Foolery, Pogo And A Market Update

Yes, you read the headline correctly, Tom Foolery.  I really don’t know how else to describe what just transpired in Washington.  I read an LA Times article that said, “We have met the enemy and he is us;” a reference to Walt Kelly’s iconic comic strip, Pogo.  In the original comic strip, Pogo says this phrase in reference to walking along a litter filled forest floor; we are the enemy because we litter and it hurts his feet.  Later, Kelly uses this image in political satire with regards to the Joseph McCarthy communist witch hunt of the 1950’s.  Kelly recognized that our fears of communist infiltration and the subsequent attack on our citizenry by McCarthy’s Senate Subcommittee on Un-American Affairs, was the greatest threat to our democracy, not communism.  The LA Times article argued that we elected this Congress and the infighting there is merely a reflection of the deep divides within our democracy and also that we can change it by voting differently.

The effect of the government shutdown on real estate and the economy at large, has yet to be determined.  The fact that our confidence has been shaken clearly cooled some of the jets of home buyers.  But because we were down this road in summer 2011, I actually think we’ve done a pretty good job of brushing it off and moving on.  After all, real estate is local and for most of the nation, what happens in Washington is a world away from what happens at home.  That said, there are clouds a brewing in the world of real estate.  They are not dark clouds, but they are clouds none the less.

So what am I talking about?  Well for starters, in most of the nation, sales were down from August to September, though they were actually up in the West 1.6%.  This is the first time in 10 months that month over sales have declined.  Prices of course remained up double digits year over year.  NAR says the slowdown is due to a combination of pressures: rising interest rates; rising home prices and the lack of substantive income growth.  In other words, affordability.  I think it’s pretty obvious at this point that prices dropped too far during the housing meltdown and financial crisis and that’s why they roared back so vociferously.  So now they are back to what historically would be considered a substantial correction of around 10-15% from market peaks; at a point where we might normally have been had lending not been so loosey-goosey during the boom and prices not gone up so much.  In other words, had they not gone up so much, they wouldn’t have come down so far.

What should we then expect for the months ahead?  I think it reasonable to expect we will give a little back.  We went up a lot; really fast and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to give some of those gains back, besides, summer is over and we are entering the cooler real estate season of fall to boot.  To use a Wall Street term, I am expecting a modest pull back.  I believe we are actually seeing that now.  I have several homes currently under contract and in escrow.  The prices my sellers accepted are a bit less than we might have sold for last summer.   A seasonal drop off is pretty normal and exacerbated perhaps, by our shaken confidence.  That said, inventory remains very tight.  I have buyers I still can’t find homes for.  So demand may be waning some, but the supply is not increasing and in fact the total number of units remains stubbornly low at about 480 in the Conejo Valley.  While that is double what it was in January of this year it’s almost a third of what it was in fall of 2008 when the market was in free fall.  In other words, this modest pull back is not in any way a dramatic collapse in our market nor does it portend to one, our inventory is just too low.  And even with lower affordability due to rising prices and rising borrowing costs, I think it’s reasonable to expect prices will slacken a little near term but rebound next year and probably appreciate another few percent.  Traditionally California home value appreciation is around 3% per annum and as we continue a path towards normalization in real estate, I expect that type of result going forward.

2014 however, does bring the midterm elections and this time it should be very interesting to see how we as a nation vote for our leadership.  I think it best to remember what Pogo taught us so many years ago, “We met the enemy and he is us.”  We vote these people in and we can vote them out.  If we vote in radicals, we will only have ourselves to blame.  Hopefully the radicalization of Congress abates and cooler, compromising heads prevail.  It’s up to us to elect officials that we want and I think it’s safe to say, we don’t want what we have today.  For real estate professionals, property owners and would be property owners, we hope the government just stays the heck out of the way and lets us just get on with the recovery at hand. To quote Pogo and Walt Kelly one more time, “We are confronted with insurmountable opportunities.”  Let’s just take advantage of them… what do you say?

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